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Tokyo’s plan to develop anaircraft carrier capable of launching fighter jets is driven by Beijing’smilitary rise, but the move could embolden hawkish generals in China to pressahead with their own expansion programmes, observers said.

觀察人士說,由于北京的軍事崛起,日本計劃開發一艘能夠發射戰斗機的航空母艦,但這一舉措可能使中國的鷹派將軍們更有勇氣推進他們自己的擴張計劃。

The ruling LiberalDemocratic Party and its junior coalition partner Komeito Party this weekapproved a new defence guideline that will effectively allow the Japanesemilitary to convert naval vessels currently capable of carrying onlyhelicopters into fully operational aircraft carriers able to launch fighterjets like the F-35.

執政黨自民黨及其下屬的聯盟伙伴公明黨本周批準了一項新的防務指導方針,該指導方針將有效地允許日本軍方將目前僅能運載直升機的海軍艦艇改裝為能夠發射F-35等戰斗機的全面運作的航空母艦。

The plan is controversial asunder its pacifist constitution, Japan has never before owned such advancednaval hardware.

這個計劃具有爭議,因為根據其和平憲法,日本以前從未擁有過如此先進的海軍硬件。

Song Zhongping, a militarycommentator based in Hong Kong, said Tokyo’s plan would make an already fragile Sino-Japaneserelationship even more uneasy.

駐香港的軍事評論員宋中平說,東京的計劃將使已經脆弱的中日關系變得更加不安。

“Japan has so far refused torecognise its aggression against China during the second world war,” he said.“Any move to build its first aircraft carrier would not only violate itspacifist constitution – which forbids it from operating such an attack vessel –but would also make China and other countries that were victims of itsaggression very uneasy.”

“日本迄今為止一直拒絕承認其在二戰期間對中國的侵略,”他說。“任何建造第一艘航空母艦的行動,不僅會違反其和平憲法——該憲法禁止其運行這種攻擊艦——還會使中國和其他遭受侵略的國家感到非常不安。”

The planwas “obviously targeting China”, Song said as Beijing had accelerated its ownnaval build up with the addition of advanced destroyers and aircraft carriers.

宋說,該計劃“顯然是針對中國”,因為北京已經通過增添先進的驅逐艦和航空母艦加速了自己的海軍建設。

Beijinghas made significant advances in its naval firepower in recent years. Italready has one aircraft carrier – the Liaoning – in active service, and asecond – the domestically developed Type 001A – is set to join it next year. By2030, at least four aircraft carrier battle groups are expected to be inservice.

近年來,北京海軍火力取得了重大進展。它已經有一艘現役的航空母艦——遼寧航空母艦,以及第二艘——國產001A航空母艦——準備明年加入服役。到2030年,預計至少有4個航母戰斗群將在役。

Despite Tokyo’s plans to have a carrier capable of hostingfighter jets, Beijing-based military analyst Zhou Chenming said it waspremature to assume Japan’s Izumo-class vessels would be a match for China’smuch larger ships.

盡管東京計劃建造一艘能夠承載戰斗機的航母,但駐北京的軍事分析家周晨明說,現在就認為日本的Izumo級艦艇能與中國大得多的艦艇相抗衡還為時過早。

“It willbe a costly job to convert an Izumo-class destroyer into a real aircraftcarrier. It will take a lot of time and involve a lot of sophisticatedtechnologies,” he said.

“把一艘Izumo級驅逐艦改造成真正的航空母艦將是一項昂貴的工作。這將需要很多時間,并涉及許多復雜的技術,”他說。

“And evenif the project can be done, how can a 27,000-tonne warship deal with China’sType 001 Liaoning aircraft carrier, which is several times bigger?”

“即使這項工程可以完成,一艘27000噸的軍艦如何應對中國幾倍大的001型遼寧航空母艦?”“

CollinKoh Swee Lean, a defence expert at the S. Rajaratnam School of InternationalStudies in Singapore, said Tokyo’s plan might provoke a backlash not only fromChina but also the two Koreas, and intensify naval competition in northeastAsia.

新加坡拉賈拉特南國際研究學院的國防專家柯林·高瑞廉說,東京的計劃不僅可能刺激中國,而且可能激起兩個朝鮮的反彈,并加劇東北亞海軍的競爭。

“Thatcould lead to countries boosting their countervailing capabilities throughdefence build-ups, and even enhancing defence and security engagements withpowers from outside the region,” he said.

他說:“這可能導致各國通過加強國防建設來提高其應對能力,甚至加強與該地區以外國家的國防和安保聯系。”

Macau-basedmilitary expert Antony Wong Dong said, however, that Japanese Prime MinisterShinzo Abe was using the naval defence plan to bolster his approval ratings.

然而,澳門軍事專家安東尼·王東說,日本首相安倍晉三正利用海軍防務計劃來提高他的支持率。

“It isnot a good idea to upgrade or refit a giant warship, based on China’s costlyexperience of modifying the Liaoning,” he said.

“根據中國改裝遼寧號的昂貴經驗,升級或改裝一艘巨型戰艦不是一個好主意,”他說。

But Abewanted to “test the temperature of the trouble waters” as China and the USremained embroiled in a power struggle over geopolitics and trade, he said.

但安倍希望“測試混戰水域的水溫”,因為中國和美國仍然糾纏在地緣政治和貿易的權力斗爭中,他說。

TheLiberal Democratic Party does at least appear aware of the concerns of itsneighbours. After initially proposing the introduction of a “multi-purposedefensive aircraft carrier”, it later reworded the guideline to say the Izumowould be upgraded as “multi-purpose destroyer”.

自民黨至少看起來意識到了鄰國的擔憂。在最初提議引入“多用途防御性航空母艦”之后,它后來對指導方針進行了改寫,說Izumo將被升級為“多用途驅逐艦”。